The Import Spiral
Katrela Ventures Daily Update · Investment, M&A and Business Innovation Digest · 16 September 2026
Key takeaways
India's crude import dependence rose for a fifth straight year to a record 88.7% in 2025-26 (provisional), from 85.5% in 2021-22.
Domestic crude production fell to 28.0 MMT from 29.7 MMT; natural gas output was 34,326 MMSCM.
NPCI introduced a 0.4% MDR on UPI P2M payments above ₹2,000; Firi raised $3 million.
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📩 #Read the full update below.
01. TOP STORIES
NPCI Introduces 0.4% MDR on UPI P2M Transactions Above Rs 2,000: Effective October 15, 2026, the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) has introduced a 0.4% Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) on select Person-to-Merchant (P2M) UPI transactions exceeding Rs. 2,000, while transactions up to Rs. 2,000 (representing over 95% of total P2M volume) remain completely free. The charges apply strictly to merchants with customers continuing to pay zero fees and apps barred from levying platform fees and are capped at Rs. 300 per transaction for payments of Rs. 75,000 and above. Small vendors receiving up to Rs. 1 lakh per month under the P2PM framework are exempt, while select categories like railways, telecom, insurance, and fuel will attract a flat Rs. 5 fee per transaction above Rs. 2,000.Fibe Receives SEBI Approval for Proposed IPO: Digital consumer lending platform Fibe (operated by Social Worth Technologies) has received SEBI's final observations to proceed with its IPO, which includes a fresh issue of up to Rs. 750 crore and an offer for sale (OFS)of up to 4.01 crore equity shares. Founded in 2015, Fibe plans to utilize the fresh issue proceeds to boost the capital base of its subsidiary, EarlySalary Services Pvt Ltd (ESPL), for onward lending. Read the full Fibe DRHP filing details for more insights.
02. QUICK TAKES
India's Crude Oil Dependence Hits a Record 88.7% - Even as Government Reforms Try to Reverse a Five-Year Production Slide
Ecosystem Scale: Import Dependence: 88.7% (2025-26, provisional) | Domestic Crude Production: 28.0 MMT (down from 29.7 MMT) | Natural Gas Production: 34,326 MMSCM
India's crude oil import dependence has climbed steadily and without interruption for five straight years - from 85.5% in 2021-22to a record 88.7% in 2025-26 (provisional) - meaning less than 12% of India's crude needs are now met domestically. The government told the Rajya Sabha the decline is driven primarily by "natural decline in mature and ageing oil and gas fields," a structural, not cyclical, problem. Domestic crude production fell from 29.7 MMT to 28.0 MMT over the same period, a steady erosion rather than a sudden shock, even as India's overall petroleum consumption keeps rising.
Natural gas tells a more resilient story, domestic production grew from 33,131 MMSCM (2021-22) to 34,326 MMSCM (2025-26), though it already peaked higher at 35,717 MMSCM in 2023-24 and has since declined - suggesting gas fields are following crude's ageing trajectory with a lag. State-run producers are the ones holding the line: ONGC has sustained average annual production of ~19.6 MMT despite ageing assets, while Oil India Ltd (OIL) actually increased output from 2.94 MMT to 3.44 MMT - proving disciplined mature-field management can partially offset natural decline, even if it can't reverse the national trend.
The bottleneck is physical and geological, not financial: the government cites rising water production in ageing wells, sand ingress, limited reservoir pressure, and subsurface complexities that reduce drilling and workover effectiveness - problems capital alone cannot fix quickly. The annual decline rate in these mature fields has been contained to roughly 6%, which the government frames as a policy success, though it's a slower rate of loss, not a reversal.
On reform, the government has moved on multiple fronts simultaneously: the Oilfields (Regulation and Development) Amendment Act, removal of restrictions on offshore exploration areas, and a transition to a revenue-sharing regime (replacing the older production-sharing model) to attract more exploration capital. These reforms target the supply side of a problem that's fundamentally about geological maturity -a longer-cycle bet that new exploration and offshore acreage can offset what ageing onshore fields can no longer deliver.
Katrela's Take
➢ India crossing 88.7% import dependence is the compounding result of five straight years of the same trend, and the government's own explanation - ageing fields, natural decline - admits this isn't fixable with policy tweaks alone. OIL growing production while ONGC merely held steady shows operator discipline still matters even in a structurally declining basin. But the real signal is timing: revenue-sharing and offshore deregulation are multi-year exploration bets, meaning import dependence likely worsens before these reforms show up in production data - keeping crude-price and currency exposure elevated for the medium term.
03. FUNDING BRIEF
Gurugram-based beauty and personal carequick commerce startup Firi has raised $3 million (Rs. 25 crs. approx.) in a funding round led by 360 ONE Asset. Founded in 2026 by former Uber India executives Vivek Madani and Karishma Rathaur, the startup operates an AI-curated marketplace analyzing over 50 million reviews to shortlist and deliver products like skincare, haircare, and body care within nine minutes in parts of Gurugram.AI-native semiconductor verification startup VerifAIX has raised $5 million(Rs. 42 crs. approx.) in a seed funding round co-led by Endiya Partners. Co-founded in 2024 by Madhulima Tewari, Kenneth Roe, and Avner Landver, the startup builds an AI-native verification platform featuring its proprietary "Formal Brain" to combine AI with formal methods for chip design.
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Frequently asked questions
How dependent is India on crude oil imports?
India imported 88.7% of its crude oil needs in 2025-26 (provisional), a record and the fifth consecutive annual rise.
Why is domestic oil production falling?
The government attributes the decline mainly to ageing fields and natural decline in mature reservoirs.
What does Katrela Ventures see in the data?
Policy tweaks alone cannot reverse the trend, and operator discipline matters, as Oil India grew output while ONGC held steady.
This edition was first published in the Katrela Ventures Daily Update newsletter on LinkedIn. Subscribe to get the digest every morning.
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